May rainfall supports crop development, but below-average Gu production still likely
Key Messages
Rainfall received in May was above that received in April, but total rainfall throughout the Gu season is still 30 to 60 percent below average in most areas of the country. Rainfall in May has slightly improved pasture and water conditions and led to seed germination in southern agropastoral areas. Although Gu rainfall is forecast to end on time in June, forecast average Karan and Hagaa rains are expected to further improve pasture and support late-planted crops.
Livestock body conditions are improving in most pastoral areas alongside pasture and water regeneration. Livestock are expected to conceive during this season, which will result in goat births and milk production in October. The exception to this is in Southern Inland Pastoral of Hiraan where rainfall has been significantly below average and livestock conditions are not improving. In Hawd and Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zones, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist through at least September, but food security is expected to improve slightly in October with increased milk consumption.
In southern agropastoral areas, rainfall in May has supported crop germination and most crops are at the vegetative stage. If average Hagaa rains are received in southern Bay and coastal areas, most crops in these areas will reach full development. However, total production is still expected to be below average due to early season losses. Significantly below-average production is expected in agropastoral areas of Hiraan. Food security here is expected to remains severe through October and many poor households will be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).
Between March and April, the retail price of a kilogram of sorghum increased from 8,400 SOS to 10,750 SOS and a kilogram of maize in Qorioley increased from 7,250 SOS to 8,700 SOS. Prices remain well above the five-year average, although increases have been less significant than observed in 2011, likely due to the influx of large-scale humanitarian assistance. Prices are expected to decline slightly following the late arrival of the Gu harvest in August, but remain well above average.
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity persists in many areas of Somalia and a severe AWD/cholera outbreak is ongoing. Large-scale humanitarian assistance has reduced household food consumption gaps and contributed to lower staple food prices, but an elevated risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) remains due to the combination of severe food consumption gaps, high acute malnutrition, high disease burden, and reliance on humanitarian assistance.